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Poker EV calculator: expected value of a call, bet or bluff
Expected value is what a decision earns on average over many repeats. Enter the pot, the bet and your equity to see whether a call is +EV, or how often a bet or bluff has to work.
Working it out
Example: the pot is 20 bb and he bets 10. With 30% equity, calling earns 0.3 × 40 − 10 = +2.0 bb, because you need only 10 ÷ 40 = 25%. Now you bet 15 into 20 and expect him to fold 40% of the time, with 25% equity when he calls: EV = 0.4 × 20 + 0.6 × (0.25 × 50 − 15) = +6.5 bb. As a pure bluff, the same bet needs 15 ÷ 35 = 42.9% folds.
Formula
Call: EV = e × (P + 2B) − B, where P is the pot before the bet B and e your equity; break-even equity = B ÷ (P + 2B). Bet: EV = f × P + (1 − f) × (e × (P + 2B) − B), where f is the chance he folds. Pure bluff (e = 0): break-even folds = B ÷ (P + B).
A bet's EV is measured against giving up the pot; if checking would also win sometimes, compare the two. Both formulas assume one opponent and no more betting after the call, so add implied odds by hand when chips can still go in.
Compare common situations
- Pot before your bet (bb)
- 100
- Your bet (bb)
- 50
- Folds a pure bluff needs
- 33.3%
- Pot before your bet (bb)
- 100
- Your bet (bb)
- 100
- Folds a pure bluff needs
- 50.0%
- Pot before your bet (bb)
- 100
- Your bet (bb)
- 200
- Folds a pure bluff needs
- 66.7%
Common questions
What does +EV mean?
A decision is +EV when its average result over many repeats is positive. Calling 10 bb when the pot holds 30 with 30% equity wins the 30 bb 30% of the time and loses the 10 bb call otherwise: 0.3 × 30 − 0.7 × 10 = +2 bb per call, even though it loses 7 times in 10.
How often does a bluff have to work?
With no chance of winning when called, bet ÷ (pot + bet): a half-pot bluff needs 33.3% folds and a pot-sized bluff 50%. Any equity when called lowers that number.