Module 5 · Lesson 26 of 39 · Free

Fold, call or raise: choosing the action

Course by Hernan Alejandro Gajardo Morales

Calling 10 bb when the pot holds 30 bb with his bet in it needs only 25% equity: you put in 10 of the 40 bb you play for. Facing a bet you have three choices, and two numbers decide between them: the price of the call and how often you win.

The hand

The river: you hold K♦ 9♣, a pair of nines. The Loose-aggressive player bets 10 bb into 20 bb, so the pot with his bet in it is 30 bb and you must call 10 bb. When he bets like this, he has a queen or better 6 times in 10 and a missed straight draw 4 times in 10.

Predict first

Your nines beat his missed draws and lose to everything else. What do you do?

1. Fold: you lose 6 times in 10
2. Call: you win 40%, and the call needs 25%
3. Raise: you beat him every time he bluffs

Working it out

Count the price first: the call costs 10 bb and plays for the 30 bb in the pot, 10 ÷ (30 + 10) = 25%. You win 40%, more than the price, so the call makes money: in ten calls you win 4 × 30 = 120 bb and lose 6 × 10 = 60 bb, 6 bb a call on average. Now try a raise to 30 bb. His missed draws fold, and you win the same 30 bb a call would have won. His queens and better call and take 30 bb from you instead of 10: 0.4 × 30 − 0.6 × 30 = −6 bb a raise. The call is best.

So ask three questions before you act: what is the price, how often do you win against the hands he bets this way, and which of his hands would call a raise? Fold when you win less often than the price. Call when you win more often, unless most of the hands that would call a raise are worse than yours: then raise. A raise can also protect a hand that is ahead from a draw, by making it pay more for the next card, as a later lesson on free cards shows.

Formula

Price = call ÷ (pot with his bet + call): 10 ÷ (30 + 10) = 25%. Call when you win more often than the price

Check your understanding

1. The pot holds 50 bb with his bet in it, and you must call 20 bb. What equity do you need, in %?

   Show the answer

   Answer: 28.6%

   You play for 50 + 20 = 70 bb, and your call is 20 bb of it: 20 ÷ 70 = 28.6%.

2. You must call 10 bb, the pot holds 40 bb with his bet in it, and you win 15% of the time. What do you do?

   1. Fold
   2. Call
   3. Raise
   Show the answer

   Answer: Fold

   The call needs 10 ÷ (40 + 10) = 20%, and you win only 15%: fold. A raise would only be called by better hands.

3. When is a raise for value right?

   1. When most of the hands that would call it are worse than yours
   2. Whenever you might have the best hand
   3. Whenever his bet is small
   Show the answer

   Answer: When most of the hands that would call it are worse than yours

   A raise earns from the worse hands that call it. If the hands that call are mostly better than yours, the raise loses more than a call would.