Module 6 · Lesson 27 of 39 · Free
Made hands and draws
A flush draw on the flop becomes a flush by the river 35% of the time, about one time in three. Until then it is a hand that is weak now and strong if the right card comes. Every hand on the flop is made, drawing, both or neither, and knowing which tells you how to play it.
The hand
The flop is K♥ 8♥ 2♣. You hold A♥ 5♥: two hearts in your hand and two on the board. The Tight-aggressive player has bet, and any king he holds beats your ace high right now.
Predict first
How many of the cards you have not seen give you a flush?
- 9: the hearts you cannot see
- 13: every heart in the deck
- 11: every heart but your two
Show the answer
Answer: 9: the hearts you cannot see
There are 13 hearts. You can see four of them, your A♥ 5♥ and the K♥ 8♥ on the board, so 13 − 4 = 9 are among the 47 cards you have not seen. Any of them gives you a flush.
Working it out
Name the made hand first. A hole card that pairs the highest board card is top pair, like K♣ Q♦ here; a pocket pair above every board card is an overpair, like A♠ A♦; two hole cards that each pair a board card are two pair, like K♠ 8♣; a pocket pair that matches a board card is a set, like 8♠ 8♦. Then count the draw's outs, the cards that complete it (a later lesson checks that they also win). Four cards to a flush leave 13 − 4 = 9. Four ranks in a row, open at both ends like J T 9 8, leave 4 + 4 = 8: any queen or seven. Four of five ranks with a gap inside, like Q J 9 8, leave only the 4 tens: a gutshot. A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw adds both, less the two cards counted twice: 9 + 8 − 2 = 15. By the river, 9 outs come in 35.0% of the time, 8 outs 31.5%, 4 outs 16.5% and 15 outs 54.1%.
Made hands and draws want different things. A made hand like top pair is ahead of many hands now and wants to bet, so worse hands and draws pay to stay in. A draw is behind and wants to see the next card cheaply, or to bet when a fold also wins it the pot: a semi-bluff. The best flops give you both, like top pair with a flush draw, or two draws at once, like a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw, whose 15 outs come in by the river more often than not.
Formula
Outs: flush draw 13 − 4 = 9; open-ended straight draw 4 + 4 = 8; gutshot 4; flush draw with an open-ended straight draw 9 + 8 − 2 = 15
Check your understanding
You hold 7♠ 7♦ and the flop is K♥ 7♣ 2♦. What do you have?
- A set
- An overpair
- Two pair
Show the answer
Answer: A set
A pocket pair that matches a card on the board is a set: three sevens.
You hold J♣ T♣ and the flop is 9♦ 8♠ 2♣. How many outs does your straight draw have?
Show the answer
Answer: 8
J T 9 8 is four in a row, open at both ends: any queen or seven makes a straight, 4 + 4 = 8 outs.
You hold A♠ 4♠ and the flop is K♠ 5♦ 3♠. How many cards give you a flush or a straight?
Show the answer
Answer: 12
Four spades leave 13 − 4 = 9 spades. Any two makes A 2 3 4 5, 4 more cards, but the 2♠ is already counted: 9 + 4 − 1 = 12.