Part 2 · Lesson 4 of 25 · Free
Pot odds and implied odds
Your flush draw hits about one time in five on the river, but the call costs one in four. Fold? Not if you will win enough more when the flush comes. The price of a call is the equity you need to break even: the call divided by the pot after your call.
The hand
Turn. You have the nut flush draw. The Tight-aggressive player bets 20 bb into 40 bb, so the pot with his bet in it is 60 bb and you must call 20 bb. Nine spades are left among the 46 cards you cannot see.
Predict first
If no betting followed this call, should you call 20 bb into the 60 bb pot with 9 outs?
- Yes: 19.6% is close enough
- No: the call needs 25%
- Yes: a flush draw is worth a call
Show the answer
Answer: No: the call needs 25%
The call needs 20 ÷ (60 + 20) = 25%, and 9 of 46 cards, 19.6%, is less. On the price alone it loses money; only money won later can pay for it.
Working it out
The pot lays you 60 to 20, or 3 to 1: those are the pot odds, and they mean the call needs 20 ÷ 80 = 25%. Your 9 outs give 9 ÷ 46 = 19.6%. To break even you must win more when you hit: 20 ÷ 0.196 − 80 ≈ 22 bb more on the river. If he usually pays 22 bb or more when the flush comes, the call is right. Money you expect to win later is implied odds.
When no betting follows, compare your equity with the price and you are done. When it does, a hand that is behind now can still call if it expects to win enough later, and implied odds have to be earned: by stacks, by a disguised hand and by an opponent willing to pay.
Formula
Required equity = call ÷ (pot + call), where pot includes the bet you face. Extra winnings needed = call ÷ equity − (pot + call)
Check your understanding
The pot was 60 bb, then he bets 20 bb. You must call 20 bb. What equity do you need, in %?
Show the answer
Answer: 20%
The pot you face is 60 + 20 = 80; required equity = 20 ÷ (80 + 20) = 20%.
Equity 20%, the pot you face is 40 bb, the call is 20 bb. How much more must you win on later streets to break even, in bb?
Show the answer
Answer: 40 bb
20 ÷ 0.2 − (40 + 20) = 100 − 60 = 40 bb.