Module 7 · Lesson 36 of 39 · Free
VPIP, PFR and 3-bet in poker: what the stats mean
Over 200 hands a player puts chips in before the flop 102 times but raises only 18 of them: a VPIP of 51% and a PFR of 9%. He plays half his hands and just calls with most of them, the numbers of the app's Calling station: bet your good hands for value and never bluff him. Two numbers, and after a couple of hundred hands you have a good first read on how to play him.
The hand
Six opponents, six styles. A few hundred hands in, three numbers tell them apart: how often each one plays a hand, how often he raises with it, and how often he raises a raise.
Predict first
A player's VPIP is 21% and his PFR 17%. Which style fits him best?
- Calling station
- Tight-aggressive
- Maniac
Show the answer
Answer: Tight-aggressive
He plays about one hand in five, which is tight, and raises 17 of every 21 hands he plays, which is aggressive. The app's Tight-aggressive bots measure 21% and 17%.
Working it out
Each stat is a count divided by the chances. VPIP counts the hands in which he put chips in by choice, a call or a raise (posting a blind does not count): 102 ÷ 200 = 51%. PFR counts the hands he raised before the flop: 18 ÷ 200 = 9%. The gap, 51 − 9 = 42 points, is the hands he only called. 3-bet counts his re-raises out of the times one player had raised before him: 3 re-raises in 100 chances is 3%. The app's bots, measured over a million hands, run from the Nit, who plays 13% of hands, to the Maniac, who plays 54%; the Calling station plays nearly as many, but raises 9% where the Maniac raises 41%.
A stat is only as good as its sample. After 100 hands a VPIP of 25% could really be anywhere from about 17% to 33%, and after 500 hands from about 21% to 29%. Chances to 3-bet come only when someone has raised before him, about 2 hands in 5 at the app's six-player tables, so the 3-bet number needs several hundred hands before it means much. The Mathematics lesson on data shows how these error bars are worked out; until then, treat a stat as a first guess and keep watching.
Formula
VPIP = hands played by choice ÷ hands dealt; PFR = hands raised ÷ hands dealt; 3-bet = re-raises ÷ chances: 102 ÷ 200 = 51%
Check your understanding
Over 300 hands a player put chips in by choice 84 times. What is his VPIP, in %?
Show the answer
Answer: 28%
84 ÷ 300 = 28%.
VPIP 13% and PFR 10%, after 2,000 hands. Which style is he?
- Nit
- Loose-aggressive
- Calling station
Show the answer
Answer: Nit
He plays only about one hand in eight and raises most of them: the app's Nit measures 13% and 10%. The Loose-aggressive bots play 36% of hands and the Calling station 51%.
After 40 hands a player shows a VPIP of 30%. What can you say?
- He is surely a loose player
- Not much yet: 40 hands leave a wide range around 30%
- He is surely a tight player
Show the answer
Answer: Not much yet: 40 hands leave a wide range around 30%
1.96 × √(0.3 × 0.7 ÷ 40) ≈ 0.14, so his real VPIP could be anywhere from about 16% to 44%: tight, average or loose.