Module 7 · Lesson 34 of 39 · Free

Tilt and the Mind tab

Course by Hernan Alejandro Gajardo Morales

Win 5 bb per 100 hands while calm and lose 20 bb per 100 while angry, and one session in five on tilt takes your whole profit: 0.8 × 5 + 0.2 × (−20) = 0. Tilt is playing worse because of emotion, most often right after a painful loss, and it can undo everything else you learn.

The hand

The river. You were all in on the turn with A♠ A♦ against the Calling station's 9♣ 5♣: only an 8 could beat you, 4 of the 44 cards left. The 8♥ came, and his straight takes the 200 bb pot.

Predict first

Calm, you win 5 bb per 100 hands; on tilt you lose 20. If you play one hand in ten on tilt, what is your win rate?

1. About 4.5 bb/100: a tenth on tilt costs a tenth of the profit
2. 2.5 bb/100: half the profit is gone
3. Below zero: any tilt makes you a losing player

Working it out

Mix the two win rates by the share of hands played in each state. One session in five on tilt: 0.8 × 5 + 0.2 × (−20) = 4 − 4 = 0 bb/100. Over 10,000 hands the calm player wins 5 × 100 = 500 bb, and the same player with that much tilt wins nothing. The share of tilt that wipes out a profit is the calm win rate divided by the gap between the two: 5 ÷ (5 + 20) = 20%. A player who wins 2 bb/100 has less room: 2 ÷ (2 + 20) ≈ 9%, about one hand in 11.

Know the signs: playing more hands than usual, calling “to see if he has it”, deciding faster, thinking about the last hand instead of this one. Set your stop rules before you sit down, for example stop after losing three buy-ins in a session or after two painful beats in a row, and keep them. When a beat stings, stand up and take a break before the next hand. The Mind tab's Tilt reset is two minutes of 4-7-8 breathing, in for 4 seconds, hold for 7, out for 8: about six slow breaths that settle you before you play on.

Formula

Win rate = calm share × calm rate + tilt share × tilt rate: 0.8 × 5 + 0.2 × (−20) = 0. Tilt that wipes out the profit = calm ÷ (calm − tilt): 5 ÷ 25 = 20%

Check your understanding

1. Calm, you win 4 bb/100; on tilt you lose 16 bb/100. If a quarter of your hands are played on tilt, what is your win rate, in bb/100?

   Show the answer

   Answer: −1

   0.75 × 4 + 0.25 × (−16) = 3 − 4 = −1 bb/100: a winning player becomes a losing one.

2. Calm, you win 3 bb/100; on tilt you lose 27 bb/100. What share of your hands on tilt wipes out the whole profit, in %?

   Show the answer

   Answer: 10%

   3 ÷ (3 + 27) = 3 ÷ 30 = 10%: one hand in ten.

3. You just lost a big pot to a lucky river. Which of these is a sign of tilt?

   1. Folding a weak hand to a big bet, as you always do
   2. Calling a big bet with a weak pair “to see if he has it”
   3. Standing up for a short break before the next hand
   Show the answer

   Answer: Calling a big bet with a weak pair “to see if he has it”

   Calling to see his cards is the urge to get even, not a decision on the price. Folding weak hands and taking breaks are what a calm player does.