Part 3 · Lesson 18 of 25 · Pro
Drawing out: hands that change
A flush draw on the flop comes in 35% of the time by the river, but only 19% of the time on the turn alone, and the turn may be all you get to see for one call. On the flop and turn many hands are draws: behind now, ahead if certain cards come.
The hand
Flop. You have the nut flush draw. The Loose-aggressive player bets 15 bb into 20 bb, so the pot with his bet is 35 bb and you must call 15 bb: the call needs 15 ÷ 50 = 30%.
Predict first
With 9 outs, is the call right?
- Yes: 35% beats the 30% it needs
- It depends on whether you see both cards for this price
- No: a draw is behind until it hits
Formula
One card: outs ÷ 47. Two cards: 1 − (47 − outs)/47 × (46 − outs)/46. Rule of 2 and 4: ≈ 2% or 4% per out
This lesson is part of Pro. Above are its opening, its question and the idea it leads to; the worked numbers, the common mistake, the interactive tool and the check are in the app.