Module 6 · Lesson 31 of 39 · Free
Planning the turn and river
Bet the size of the pot on the flop, the turn and the river, get called every time, and you have put in 13 times what was in the pot on the flop. From a 6 bb pot that is 78 bb: even three pot-size bets do not get 100 bb stacks in. How much can go in, and on which streets, is worth deciding before the first bet.
The hand
The flop. You raised before the flop with A♥ K♦ and the Tight-aggressive player called: 6 bb are in the pot and each of you has 100 bb behind. You have top pair with the best kicker.
Predict first
You bet two thirds of the pot on the flop, the turn and the river, and he calls each time. How much of your 100 bb has gone in?
- All of it
- About a third: 35 bb
- About two thirds: 66 bb
Show the answer
Answer: About a third: 35 bb
Each bet of two thirds of the pot, called, makes the pot about 2.33 times bigger: 6 bb becomes 14, then 32.7, then 76.2 bb. Your three bets are 4 + 9.3 + 21.8 = 35.1 bb, about a third of your stack.
Working it out
A bet of a share of the pot, called, multiplies the pot by 1 + 2 × that share: half the pot doubles it, the pot triples it. Three pot-size bets turn 6 bb into 6 × 3 × 3 × 3 = 162 bb, of which each player put in (162 − 6) ÷ 2 = 78 bb. Compare your stack with the pot: the stack-to-pot ratio is 100 ÷ 6 = 16.7 here. Three half-pot bets put in 3.5 times the flop pot, three bets of two thirds 5.9 times, three pot-size bets 13 times. From this flop, getting 100 bb in by the river would take three bets of more than the pot.
So make the plan on the flop, before you bet. First, how many bets your hand wants: two or three normal bets for top pair, as many as it takes to get the stacks in for a set or better. Second, which turn cards stop you: here a low card like the 2♥ changes nothing, so you bet again, while a queen, a jack or a ten each complete a straight, for J T, Q T or Q J, so you check and see what he does. Third, which size gets the chips in when you want them in: with a stack-to-pot ratio of 3.5, three half-pot bets do it; with 13, three pot-size bets; at 16.7, no normal size does.
Formula
Pot after a bet of a share f of the pot and a call = pot × (1 + 2 × f). Stack-to-pot ratio = stack ÷ pot: 100 ÷ 6 = 16.7
Check your understanding
The pot is 10 bb. You bet half the pot and he calls. How big is the pot now, in bb?
Show the answer
Answer: 20 bb
Your bet is 5 bb and his call adds 5 bb more: 10 + 5 + 5 = 20 bb.
The pot is 15 bb. You have 120 bb behind and he has 60 bb. What is the stack-to-pot ratio?
Show the answer
Answer: 4
Only the smaller stack can be won and lost: 60 ÷ 15 = 4.
The pot is 10 bb on the flop and each of you has 50 bb. You bet the size of the pot on every street, and he calls. When are you all in?
- On the turn
- On the river
- Never: chips are left after the river
Show the answer
Answer: On the river
You bet 10 bb on the flop and 30 bb on the turn: 10 + 30 = 40 bb in, 10 bb left. On the river the pot is 90 bb, so your last 10 bb go in: all in on the river.