Part 3 · Lesson 14 of 25 · Pro
You don't have to guess: no-limit bet sizing
With the nuts or nothing, every value hand earns 1.25 pots with a bet of a third of the pot, 1.5 pots with a pot-sized bet and 1.67 pots with twice the pot. In no-limit you choose the size, and with a polarized range bigger bets win more, until you run out of bluffs.
The hand
River, pot 10 bb. 60% of your hands are the nuts and 40% are missed draws. The Tight-aggressive player holds a bluff catcher and knows your ranges.
Predict first
You balance whatever size you choose with the right number of bluffs. Which size earns the most?
- Half the pot
- The pot
- Twice the pot
Formula
Clairvoyance game (pot 1, nut share v, bet s): value = v × (1 + s ÷ (1 + s)) while bluffs last; largest balanced bet = (1 − v) ÷ (2v − 1) when v > 1/2
This lesson is part of Pro. Above are its opening, its question and the idea it leads to; the worked numbers, the common mistake, the interactive tool and the check are in the app.