Poker odds, answered
Flush draw odds: how often you make the flush
With a flush draw on the flop (9 outs) you make the flush 35.0% of the time by the river: 19.1% on the turn alone, and 19.6% on the river if the turn missed.
Exact counts, not simulations.
How it is counted
Thirteen cards of each suit, four of them already in your hand and on the board: nine are left among the 47 cards you cannot see on the flop. You miss both streets when the turn is one of the 38 others and the river one of the 37 others.
Flop to river: 1 − (38 × 37) ÷ (47 × 46) Turn only: 9 ÷ 47 · River only: 9 ÷ 46 Rule of 4 and 2: 9 × 4 = 36% · 9 × 2 = 18%
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