Hand of the week 1 · J♠ 10♠
I Flopped the Nuts and Lost: Was the River Call a Mistake?
Your hand J♠ 10♠
Board 9♣ 8♦ 7♥ 2♠ 10♦
You flop the nut straight, bet the flop and the turn, and the 10♦ on the river makes queen-jack the new nuts. He bets 19 bb into 28.5.
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Call or fold the river? Decide before you read on.
The answer
Call. You need 28.6% and you win 78% against the hands that bet this river (straights, sets, two pair). The call is worth +32.9 bb, and this time it loses to queen-jack: a right decision with a bad result.
The video of this hand airs on YouTube on Friday, November 6, 2026 at 18:00 Brasília time, on @pokermathcoach.
Every number is computed by the Poker Math Coach engine. Ranges and reads are assumptions, said as such in the video.