Hand of the week 8 · K♥ 9♥
The Thin Value Bet: Why the Small River Bet Is the Only Good One
Your hand K♥ 9♥
Board K♣ 7♦ 4♠ 2♥ 2♠
A passive player checks the river to you. His range: 80 combos, 31 better and 49 worse.
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Check, bet a third of the pot, or bet the pot? Decide before you read on.
The answer
A third of the pot. Checking wins 61.3% (6.4 bb). A third of the pot is called by every pair and adds +0.8 bb; two thirds loses 1.0 and the pot loses 4.1.
The video of this hand airs on YouTube on Friday, December 25, 2026 at 18:00 Brasília time, on @pokermathcoach.
Every number is computed by the Poker Math Coach engine. Ranges and reads are assumptions, said as such in the video.