Hand of the week 12 · A♠ 5♠
He Folds 44% and Your Bluff Needs 40%. Why Checking Wins More
Your hand A♠ 5♠
Board K♠ 9♦ 4♠ 2♣ 7♥
On the button you miss the nut flush and the big blind checks the river. A two-thirds pot bluff needs 40.0% folds, and he folds 43.9%.
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Bluff or check? Decide before you read on.
The answer
Check. Checking earns more: 53 of his folds are missed draws your ace-high already beats. Bet +1.5 bb per hand, check +5.6.
The video of this hand airs on YouTube on Friday, January 22, 2027 at 18:00 Brasília time, on @pokermathcoach.
Every number is computed by the Poker Math Coach engine. Ranges and reads are assumptions, said as such in the video.